Who To Target: Fantasy Feud and Daily Fantasy Baseball Closers


Originally published at DFSEdge.

Here we are at the last daily fantasy baseball site profile.  We've gone through all eight of the major daily sites this year, their quirks, the types of players best suited for each, and the learning curve to play on each.  Whether you're a newbie or a long-time daily veteran, hopefully this series has proven useful to you in deciding where to play your games.

Last up is Fantasy Feud, which has a bit more charm than its mostly mediocre numbers indicate.

Uniqueness Uniqueness is a measure of how differently players score on a particular site relative to the average daily site. Uniqueness serves as a good estimate for how much your strategy needs to change when playing on a given site. (Note: Pitching Uniqueness only includes starting pitchers despite some sites utilizing relievers.)
Site

Hitting Uniqueness

DraftKings

3.7%

DraftStreet

3.6%

FantasyAces

2.9%

Fantasy Feud

2.7%

StarStreet

2.6%

Fan Throwdown

2.5%

FanDuel

2.2%

DraftDay

1.7%

Site

Pitching Uniqueness

DraftDay

11.6%

FanDuel

7.7%

StarStreet

7.1%

Fantasy Feud

5.3%

FantasyAces

3.5%

DraftKings

2.4%

DraftStreet

2.3%

Fan Throwdown

1.4%

Fantasy Feud is about as average as they come in terms of our premier metric.  It's not completely boring and lacking uniqueness, but it's about average in terms of both hitting and pitching.  That means that there will be some players that need to be valued differently on Fantasy Feud than they do elsewhere, but not as many as most sites and not as few as others.

Scoring System Quirkiness (Hitting) Scoring System Quirkiness is a measure of how much a given site's scoring system differs relative to the average daily site. Since sites award points on different scales (i.e. DraftDay gives 20 points for a HR; FanDuel gives 4 points for a HR), category values are listed in relative terms (all relative to the number of points awarded for a home run -- so if a single is worth 1 point and a home run is worth 4 points, the value of a single is said to be 25 percent.)

Category

Fantasy Feud

Average

1B

25%

26%

2B

50%

50%

3B

75%

76%

HR

100%

100%

RBI

50%

31%

R

38%

27%

BB

13%

22%

SB

50%

50%

CS

-25%

-12%

HBP

13%

20%

K

-13%

-5%

GIDP

-13%

-4%

SAC

Not Used

2%

Out

Not Used

-3%

Site

Hitting Quirkiness

DraftStreet

125%

Fantasy Feud

65%

StarStreet

48%

FanDuel

44%

DraftKings

43%

DraftDay

42%

Fan Throwdown

40%

FantasyAces

39%

Fantasy Feud finishes quite well in terms of Hitting Quirkiness despite a mediocre Hitting Uniqueness score, which usually means that they use some novel stats but those stats don't mean all that much in terms of final production numbers.

Indeed, we see the use of GIDP and CS and a deflated HBP score, but we also see abnormal scoring for some of the normal categories. RBI and run are worth quite a bit more than they are on most sites, putting a premium on players who are in the top five spots of the batting order.  And with RBI worth more than runs, that puts third and fourth spot hitters ahead of the rest...

... at least until we look at walks and strikeouts, which are often big parts of the games of middle-of-the-order hitters.  The use of strikeouts and the fact that walks are worth less on Fantasy Feud than they are anywhere else cut down on the value of these hitters.  That seems to swing the pendulum back in favor of the top-of-the-order hitters a bit, but then you realize that they generally rely on walks too unless they're speedy, in which case they lose some value with the use of caught stealing as a category.  This cancelling out effect explains much of the reason Fantasy Feud's Quirkiness score is higher than its Uniqueness score.

All told, on Fantasy Feud the guys with the most relative value are going to be middle-of-the-order hitters who don't walk or strikeout much and high-average, top-of-the-order hitters that don't rely as much on OBP or speed.  This definitely narrows our options a bit, but think about guys like A.J. Pierzynski, Adam Jones, and Kendrys Morales for the former and Manny Machado, Torii Hunter, and Daniel Murphy for the latter.

Scoring System Quirkiness (Pitching) Scoring System Quirkiness is a measure of how much a given site's scoring system differs relative to the average daily site. Since sites award points on different scales (i.e. StarStreet gives 15 points for a win while DraftStreet gives just 1.5 points for a win), category values are listed in relative terms (all relative to the number of points awarded for a win).

Category

Fantasy Feud

Average

W

100%

100%

Outs

11%

13%

K

17%

30%

ER

-25%

-31%

H

-8%

-8%

BB

-8%

-8%

HBP

-8%

-7%

SV

100%

38%

BS

-33%

-10%

CG

Not Used

26%

SH

Not Used

14%

L

-33%

-15%

No No

Not Used

22%

PG

Not Used

6%

Site

Pitching Quirkiness

DraftStreet

144%

DraftKings

138%

DraftDay

132%

FanDuel

83%

Fantasy Feud

78%

FantasyAces

74%

StarStreet

67%

Fan Throwdown

62%

Despite a middle-of-the-road pitching quirkiness score, there are definitely a few things that you'll have to note when drafting your pitchers on Fantasy Feud.  The most notable is that they use saves and blown saves, one of just two sites to do so.

Of the starting pitcher categories, Fantasy Feud places less emphasis on strikeouts than any other site.  This means that when deciding which kinds of pitchers to select, you're going to derive more relative value from picking a low-strikeout, low-walk pitcher like Bronson Arroyo, Kyle Lohse, and Mike Leake rather than a high-strikeout, high-walk pitcher like Gio Gonzalez, Tim Lincecum, or Felix Doubront.

Also, because strikeouts and (to a lesser extent) earned runs are deflated and because losses are used, pitchers on teams with good offenses become extra important.  You don't get as many points from the secondary stats and can lose points if you don't get any offensive support, so pitchers on teams like the Braves, Rangers, and Red Sox all get a bump on Fantasy Feud.  Combining this with the low-K, low-walk aspect is ideal.

Roster Quirkiness Roster Quirkiness is a measure of how the roster structure of a given site differs from the average daily site.
Position

Fantasy Feud

Average

C

1

1

1B

1

0.4

1B/DH

0

0.5

3B

1

0.9

1B/3B

0

0.3

2B

1

0.9

SS

1

0.9

2B/SS

0

0.3

OF

3

3.0

U

2

0.8

SP

0

1.4

P

3

0.6

Total

13

10.8

Site

Roster Quirkiness

FantasyAces

174%

Fantasy Feud

96%

StarStreet

57% (T)

Fan Throwdown

57% (T)

DraftKings

57% (T)

FanDuel

56%

DraftStreet

54%

DraftDay

52%

Aside from FantasyAces, which does the weird lumping of first/third and second/short together, Fantasy Feud's roster construction is the quirkiest of any of our eight sites.  To start, Fantasy Feud offers the largest roster of any of the sites with 13 players.  This is due to the doubling up of the Utility spot (the only site to do this; some don't offer Utility at all) and the use of three pitchers (one of only two sites to do this).

What's interesting about those pitcher spots, though, is that they are all generic pitcher spots.  We've already established that relievers are in play, but on the other site that utilizes relievers (DraftStreet), each team is required to have two starting pitchers and then a third that can either be a starter or a reliever.  Fantasy Feud, however, gives you complete flexibility when it comes to picking and choosing.  You can go three starters, three relievers, or any combination therein.  This creates some very interesting strategic considerations that will be the subject of a future article.

Pitching Premium Pitching Premium is a measure of how valuable each pitcher spot is relative to each hitter spot based on each site’s scoring system. So on Fan Throwdown, for example, the average pitcher is 47 percent more valuable than the average hitter.
Site

Pitching Premium

StarStreet

76%

FantasyAces

75%

FanDuel

71%

DraftKings

62%

DraftDay

49%

Fan Throwdown

47%

DraftStreet

34%

Fantasy Feud

25%

Fantasy Feud comes in dead last when it comes to Pitching Premium, and it's easy to see why given their use of three pitcher spots.  The other site to offer three, DraftStreet, follows closely behind.  The average (starting) pitcher is worth just 25% more than the average hitter on Fantasy Feud, but because you're selecting so many of them and because of the aformentioned strategic implications, you can't simply phone in your pitcher pick on Fantasy Feud.

Methodology for Creating Each Metric If you’re like me and want to know what goes into the sausage, here is how I arrived at each stat that I created. If you don’t care, then you’ve reached the end of the article. You are now free to leave. Uniqueness is calculated by first looking at how every player scores in each of the eight systems. They are then re-calculated on an index scale, comparing each player to the site’s average player so that all sites are using the same scale. Then a new average is created for each player of his score on each of the eight sites. We examine how far each site’s score is from the eight-site average as an absolute value. When we average these out for all players for all sites, we get an estimate of each site’s “uniqueness.” I used full-season data for all hitters with at least 300 PA, all pitchers with at least 10 Games Started in 2012. Scoring System Quirkiness is calculated by first putting all stats on the same scale (relative to Home Runs for hitters and relative to Wins for pitchers). I find the eight-site average value of each stat, compare how each stat’s scoring varies from that average, then average out all the categories for each site (with each category weighted the same). Roster Quirkiness is calculated by finding the eight-site average of how many players are required at each roster position, then comparing how each site’s roster structure varies from that average, and average out all the roster spots for each site. Pitching Premium is calculated by first scoring out the average daily line for all hitters with at least 3 PA in game (a proxy for starting the game) and all starting pitchers for each of the eight sites. I then compare how much more valuable pitchers are than hitters using data from a recent six-year stretch of games.