Daily Blog for June 18


Originally published at DFSEdge.

If it seems like David Gonos has been limping around or walking a bit more gingerly than usual over the past couple days, it might be because Doug, Todd and I gave him a serious atomic wedgie for setting the bar so high with Saturday’s Daily Blog.  Or it might be because he stubbed his toe or something.  I’m not admitting to anything.  *cough*teacher’spet*cough*

In any case, it’s my turn again, and I’ve decided to actually talk about baseball this week.  Lucky you.  A couple weeks ago, Doug talked about the symbiosis between stats and scouting.  If you know me, you know that a couple drinks of bourbon and a question in this vicinity will get me talking your ear off on the matter.  So with the bourbon already in the tank, I’d like to give my thoughts on a subject that I find so fascinating.

While it’s less common than it was even a couple years ago, you’ll still occasionally find people who are strict observers of one school of player analysis while ignoring the either.  These people are childish and ignorant.  While I have a strong statistical background, having helmed the fantasy sections for two of the most prominent sabermetric websites out there (Baseball Prospectus and The Hardball Times), I’m also the only active fantasy analyst to have graduated from MLB’s official Scout Development Program.  Neither is sufficient alone to fully evaluate a player.  Theo Epstein once described scouting and statistics as two lenses of the same pair of glasses: sabermetrics.  I like to describe statistics as the “what” and scouting as the “why.”  Stats tell us that a pitcher is striking out an extra batter per inning this year, and scouting explains that he’s doing it because he’s getting more velocity on his fastball and is throwing a harder, tighter curveball.

When I talk about scouting, though, I don’t talk about the Harold Reynolds-perpetuated nonsense of hustle and grit and that innate, magical characteristic that bestows upon a pitcher an ability to “know how to win ballgames.”  I’m talking about actual scouting -- mechanics, bat speed, pitch movement, and the like.  Such things aren’t always identifiable by an untrained observer watching on television, but I will concede there are benefits to watching games and sometimes you can see that a player clearly isn’t right. And I’m not talking about witnessing a pitcher giving up a bunch of runs; I’m talking about noticing something wrong with the process (as for the results, we have stats for that).

I think it’s the statistical side that is actually the more interesting topic, however, particularly when it comes to the daily side of fantasy.  Sabermetrics isn’t just about looking up statistics and taking them at face value; it’s also about deciphering which statistics are meaningful and in what ways.  In traditional fantasy, there is less room to make mistakes like this, but in the daily landscape there are endless pitfalls.  Batter/pitcher matchup data.  Hot and cold streaks.  Home/road splits.  Career in ballpark stats.  These are all topics that are worthy of their own articles, but the key takeaway is not to take anything at face value.  We’ll never have perfect data, and we’ll always have to deal with a finite sample size.  That’s not to say statistics are untrustworthy, but it is to say that we need to look at them within the proper context.  We need to know when our sample size is sufficient for making decisions and when it isn’t.

(If any of this sounds familiar to you, you probably read a similar piece I wrote at Baseball Prospectus a couple years ago.  There’s enough applicability to daily fantasy, though, that I thought it worthwhile to give my thoughts here as well.)

WHAT WAS
Max Scherzer won last night, raising his Win-Loss record to 10-0, which is historically significant for some reason or another.  Turn on ESPN or MLB Network if you care.  Otherwise, treat him like an elite pitching option.

I’ve mentioned it at Fantistics a couple times, but not here yet: Dillon Gee is an underrated strikeout option and an underrated pitching option in general.  He has 32 Ks in his last 29.1 innings spanning four starts, including last night.  He’s not a K per inning guy, but he’s got above-average stuff for a guy who throws 89 mph.  Great option for favorable home starts.

He’s getting pricier on most sites now, but damn do I love me some Francisco Liriano, particularly when he’s pitching at home in PNC Park.  He took the loss last night but still pitched a decent game with 2 ER, 6 K, and 2 BB in 6 IP.

I was looking forward to recapping Wil Myers’ MLB debut, but apparently the Rays decided to take the day off.  Lazy asses.

Carlos Carrasco pitched 7.1 one-run innings last night with 4 K and 1 BB.  He has a seasonal ERA of 8.40 but is a much better pitcher than that and gets the Twins later in the week.  Could be a good cheap option.

D.J. LeMahieu batted second last night and went 1-for-3.  He doesn’t always bat second, but when he does, he’s sandwiched between some serious players and makes for a great value at second base with solid hitting skills and a little speed.

Jeff Kobernus went 0-for-3 last night, but he batted leadoff.  With Bryce Harper still sidelined and Kobernus starting against lefties, he’s a guy to consider this week given that the Nats face three more lefties.  He can hit a little and run more than a little, so if he continues leading off, he may be a good cheap option on sites that put a premium on steals.

Steve Cishek picked up another save last night -- his fifth in a little over a week.  His slow pace to that point was an easily identifiable anomaly to a stat sophisticate like myself, and he gets my seal of approval as a cheap RP option.  He’s the cheapest closer on Draft Street and one of the cheapest on Fantasy Feud.

WHAT IS
I guested on FanGraphs’ fantasy podcast, The Sleeper and The Bust, yesterday with one of my oldest friends in the fantasy industry, Mike Podhorzer -- though that may not be saying much considering I’m a baby in this industry and just had my Bar Mitzvah last month (though to be fair, I’m not Jewish and it was roughly a decade later than is traditional; honestly, I just wanted to be hoisted in that chair while everyone dances around me.)  We spent the first few minutes talking about daily fantasy, so it’s worth a listen, if for no other reason to hear what I sound like when I’m given just a few minutes of preparation time and am in that awkward not-really-drunk-anymore-but-instead-just-tired-from-the-depressant-effects-of-alcohol phase.

Drew Dinkmeyer, a fellow writer over at Fantistics and a daily player himself, posted a series of tweets yesterday in regard to the new wave of daily analysts:


Hey, he’s talking about me!  Or at least I’m pretending that he is.

And here’s your weekly reminder of your chance to play against me in Draft Street’s weekly $300 free roll (join with this link). It uses a Pick ‘Em format that is fun and easy to use.  You’re given 8 tiers with a handful of players in each, and you just pick the guy you like best from each tier.  It takes as little as two minutes and has become one of my favorite formats for a quick endorphin rush.

WHAT WILL BE
Zach Wheeler makes his MLB debut today, although it’s a road game against one of the NL’s best offenses, the Braves.  On sites where he costs the minimum, like Draft Kings, you can take a shot if you’re a Mets homer (the secondary stipulation being “if Mets homers still exist”), but otherwise I’d leave him be, especially on sites where he’s already slightly pricey.

The Red Sox and Rays play a doubleheader today. Make sure you check your site-of-choice’s rules governing them.

Because I haven’t gotten in nearly enough bragging in yet, I’ll point out that my top Strong Play from last Wednesday, Alfredo Figaro, went 7 shutout innings with 4 K, 0 BB, 3 H, and got the almighty Win.  I’m calling him a strong play today against the Astros.

And because I’m not above blatantly ripping off a fellow writer, here are my Gonos-inspired Top 34 pitchers for today’s games with potential value picks bolded:
  1. Matt Cain vs. SDP
  2. Adam Wainwright vs. CHC
  3. Justin Verlander vs. BAL
  4. Cliff Lee vs. WAS
  5. Mat Latos vs. PIT
  6. Andrew Cashner @ SFG
  7. Yu Darvish vs. OAK
  8. Matt Harvey @ ATL
  9. Jeff Samardzija @ STL
  10. Paul Maholm vs. NYM
  11. Ervin Santanta @ CLE
  12. Joe Blanton vs. SEA
  13. Alfredo Figaro @ HOU
  14. Phil Hughes vs. LAD
  15. Alex Wood vs. NYM
  16. Hyun-Jin Ryu @ NYY
  17. Felix Doubront vs. TB
  18. Jeff Francis @ TOR
  19. Zach Wheeler @ ATL
  20. Mike Pelfrey vs. CHW
  21. Randall Delgado vs. MIA
  22. Dylan Axelrod @ MIN
  23. Ubaldo Jimenez vs. KC
  24. Ross Detwiler @ PHI
  25. Jordan Lyles vs. MIL
  26. Chris Archer @ BOS
  27. Jake Odorizzi @ BOS
  28. Jarrod Parker @ TEX
  29. Alfredo Aceves vs. TB
  30. Esmil Rogers vs. COL
  31. Nate Eovaldi @ ARI
  32. Zach Britton @ DET
  33. Charlie Morton @ CIN
  34. Jeremy Bonderman @ LAA