Derek Carty - Fantasy Baseball Writer and Analyst
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Yahoo! F&F Post-Draft Q&A

Brandon Funston asks each of the 14 experts in this year’s Yahoo! Friends & Family League a couple questions about their draft.  He asks me about my Jose Bautista (R3), Mike Napoli (R8), and Chase Utley (R6) picks, plus who I thought was the best and worst value of the draft.

A few other takeaways:

  • Several people disliked my Mark Reynolds pick in round 5 (I guess I could have waited another round or two, but I really wanted him and didn’t want to risk losing him).
  • Michael Salfino of the Wall Street Journal thought my Ricky Nolasco pick was the best value of the draft
  • Chris Liss took Mike Stanton in Round 4 because he was afraid I’d grab him before his next pick.
  • Jeff Erickson picked my Sergio Romo (R21) as one of his steals of the draft.  Sure looking like it so far with Brian Wilson set to open the season on the DL
http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/mlb/news?slug=bf-funston_friends_family_draft_qanda_032511

Comments

Comment from Andrew
Time April 11, 2011 at 8:01 AM

Should we be worried about Colby?

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/early-starting-pitcher-velocity-changes/

Comment from Derek Carty
Time April 11, 2011 at 9:31 AM

Well, the velocity drop certainly isn’t a good thing, though the PITCHf/x gun is a little more optimistic at 88.3 (a 1.7 MPH drop from last year).

That said, it’s not time to hit the panic button. If you look at his velocity by start last year (link below), you’ll see that he had plenty of starts where he averaged in the 87-88 range. Being that it’s early in the season and we’re only looking at two starts, it’s entirely possible he’ll turn things around.

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=1259&position=P&pitch=FA

Here’s the best part about this, though. If I come up with a quick regression for K/9 using FB Velocity, we first see that FB Velo only makes up 20% of K/9 (which is a lot but not damning). Better yet, Lewis’s “expected K/9″ last year was just 6.5. So that means he’s doing other things outside of just fastball velocity to strike guys out, perhaps making it more likely for him to see a drop in velocity and still be successful. And even with the drop in velo, his expected K/9 would only drop to around 6.0 (these numbers are similar whether you use the BIS or f/x gun readings).

So overall, I’m holding onto Lewis, hoping he rights the ship, and if he doesn’t, he still could be successful (at least to the tune of a 4.00 ERA, at worst, I’d think/hope).